Structural optimisation, risk and reliability paper
Stewart, MG, Wang, X 2014, 'Climate adaptation engineering for extreme events: is adaptation a workable solution to climate change?', in ST Smith (ed.), 23rd Australasian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials (ACMSM23), vol. II, Byron Bay, NSW, 9-12 December, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW, pp. 683-688. ISBN: 9780994152008.
The paper will describe how risk-based approaches are well suited to optimising climate adaptation strategies related to the design and maintenance of infrastructure. Risk-based decision support is described to assess the risks and economic viability of climate adaptation measures. Stochastic methods are used to model infrastructure performance, effectiveness of adaptation strategies, exposure, and costs. The concepts will be illustrated with current research of risk-based assessment of climate adaptation strategies including designing new houses in Brisbane to extreme wind events. Increasing the design wind classifications in the AS4055-2012 for all new housing can lead to risk reductions of 75-80%, at a cost of 1-2% of house replacement value. Designing new housing to enhance wind classifications is likely to be a cost-effective adaptation strategy for Brisbane for non-foreshore locations irrespective of climate scenario. This anticipatory adaptation measure will help pave the way for more efficient and resilient infrastructure, and help 'future proof' infrastructure to a changing climate.