Improving water quality index prediction in Perak River Basin Malaysia through the combination of multiple neural networks
Ahmad, Z, Rahim, NA, Bahadori, A & Zhang, J in press, 'Improving water quality index prediction in Perak River Basin Malaysia through the combination of multiple neural networks', International Journal of River Basin Management.
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This paper proposes a method for the real-time prediction of water quality index by excluding the biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand, which are not measured in real-time, from the model inputs. In this study, feedforward artificial neural networks are used to model the water quality index in Perak River Basin Malaysia due to its capability in modelling nonlinear systems. The results show that the developed single feed forward neural network model can predict water quality index very well with the coefficient of determination R2 and mean squared error (MSE) of 0.9090 and 0.1740 on the unseen validation data respectively. In addition to that, the aggregation of multiple neural networks in predicting the water quality index further improves the prediction performance on the unseen validation data. Forward selection and backward elimination selective combination methods are used to combine multiple neural networks and both methods leads to 6 and 5 networks being combined with R2 and MSE of 0.9340, 0.9270 and 0.1156, 0.1256 respectively. It is clearly shown that combining multiple neural networks does improve the performance for water quality index prediction.