Spatial regression analysis of deforestation in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

Document Type

Book chapter

Publication details

Kaimowitz, D, Mendez, P, Puntodewo, A & Vanclay, JK 2002, 'Spatial regression analysis of deforestation in Santa Cruz, Bolivia' in CH Wood & R Porro (eds), Deforestation and land use in the Amazon, University Press of Florida, Gainesville, pp. 41-65.


This paper applies a spatial economic regression model to analyze the relation between deforestation in the period from 1989 to 1994 and access to roads and markets, ecological conditions, land tenure, and zoning policies in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The data comes from a Geographic Information System (GIS) compiled by the Natural Resources Department of the Santa Cruz Government. Locations closer to roads and the City of Santa Cruz and that have more fertile soils and higher rainfall have a greater probability of being deforested. The same also applies to colonization areas. National parks and areas occupied by indigenous people do not have significantly less deforestation than sites with similar acess and ecological conditions. Forest concessions, on the other hand seem to protect forests.