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Pre-print of Vanclay, JK 2005, 'Deforestation: correlations, possible causes and some implications', International Forestry Review, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 278-293.

The abstract and pre-print of the published article reproduced in ePublications@SCU with the permission of International Forestry Review


Changes in national forest areas during 1990-2000 are contrasted with other variables to illustrate correlations and provoke discussion about possible causes. Twenty-five statistically-significant correlations (including rural population, life expectancy, GDP, literacy, commerce, agriculture, poverty and inflation) are illustrated and a statistical model suggests that good governance, alternative employment opportunities, and payments for environmental services may be effective in combating deforestation. The data suggest that a global forest convention may need to be supported by substantial and carefully-targeted development assistance to foster good governance.

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